Being able to read an opponent’s hand with some degree of accuracy is the most important skill you can develop in poker. It is what separates beginners from true poker players, and without the ability to do this, poker becomes little more than a game of luck. You also need to be able to read the player and the situation, but this is more a matter of soft skills and being attuned to nuances of behavior and body language. Hand reading is a hard skill, based on math, which anyone can acquire with practice and application.

What is hand reading?

Hand reading in poker doesn’t mean you try to cheat by actually reading an opponent’s hand, i.e., looking at their cards. Strictly speaking, it’s more a matter of informed guesswork. You are narrowing down the possibilities, using math and logic, while interpreting your opponents’ actions and seeing what hands they fit. This works just as well at an NJ online casino as it does face-to-face. In most cases, it’s impossible to know exactly what cards someone’s holding, but you can get a fair idea.

The range

Until 2007, poker players used to try to narrow an opponent’s hand ranking down to two exact cards, saying “I put him on ace-king” or whatever. While this was hardly ever accurate, it worked well enough in practice. However, in 2007, poker player and author Cole South introduced the idea of the range. He suggested that rather than try to name specific cards, it was more accurate and effective to think of an ever-narrowing range of possible hands, or card combinations, that an opponent could be holding.

Narrowing down

Each time a player plans or takes an action, the range of hands they could be holding narrows. Of course, their actual hand doesn’t change, but the range of possibilities does, and you should be keeping track of them as the game progresses.

Initially, your opponent could literally be holding any cards apart from the ones you yourself are holding. This changes if they raise preflop, as most lower cards are eliminated from the range. When the flop comes, the range narrows still further, and from this point, you should be able to follow their betting pattern in order to guess at what card combinations they could be holding.

Know your enemy

You also have to consider the possibility that they might be bluffing, and in fact, holding a hand that’s outside of the range that matches their actions. In some cases, you might quickly conclude that they are very unlikely to have as good a hand as their behavior suggests. In others, it’s a case of factoring in what you know about a player’s personality, history and playing style, as well as the amount of money involved.

The choice

In the end, every hand falls into one of two categories: those you can beat and those you can’t. Your opponent’s range will likely include hands that fit into both categories. If the range includes ten possible card combinations, and six of them would beat your hand, then you have a 40% chance of winning. 

This percentage is known as your equity. Next, look at the size of the pot and the size of the bet to calculate the pot odds and your break-even point. If your equity is greater than your break-even point, you should carry on playing.

Poker is a game of information, and information is power. Use every tool at your disposal to work out the chances of you winning, and how to tip them in your favor.

William Willis